American League Mid-Season Review

AL East

Boston	53-33	--
Toronto	42-44	11.0
New York	41-43	11.0
Baltimore	38-48	15.0
Tampa Bay	34-52	19.0

The Red Sox have a commanding lead at the mid-point of the season. Playing .500 baseball the rest of the way would still put them at 91 wins, while somewhere in the neighborhood of 98-100 wins is probably the more likely scenario. Given the depth and success of their starting pitching and a very solid bullpen, a prolonged losing streak seems unlikely. And if/when Manny and Big Papi find their power strokes the offense will be among the most formidable in all of baseball.

Toronto has too many injuries to seriously make a run at the Sox, and New York would have to win 54 out of the last 78 games (a nearly .700 winning percentage) to reach 95 wins. With a lack of consistant starting pitching, despite the arrival of Roger Clemens, and bullpen issues, this seems unlikely despite tremendous seasons being put together by A-Rod and Derek Jeter.

Prediction: Boston Red Sox

AL Central

Detroit	51-34	--
Cleveland	52-35	--
Minnesota	45-42	7.0
Chicago	38-47	13.0
Kansas City	37-50	15.0

The race between the Tigers and Indians could turn out to be the most exciting in baseball. The Tigers lead the Majors in runs scored, on pace to score about 960 runs for the season. They have two young studs in the starting rotation in Justin Verlander (10-3 3.14 ERA) and Jeremy Bonderman (9-1 3.48 ERA). Kenny Rogers is also back into the fold winning his first 3 starts with a 1.04 ERA. Offensively Magglio Ordonez is having a fantastic season (.367 AVG, 13 HR, 70 RBI, .604 SLG) and Gary Sheffield continues to hit (.297 AVG, 20HR, 56 RBI, .541 SLG). With Palanco also hitting .335 and Guillen hitting .325 it is easy to see why they lead the league in runs scored. Two concerns that stand out to me are Curtis Granderson and Todd Jones. Granderson is a fine ballplayer, a solid fielder (.995 FPCT), and a decent hitter (.284 AVG). However, he needs to cut down on the strikeouts having struck out 82 times already this season against only 27 BB. Last year he struck out 174 times. Todd Jones has a 1-4 record with a 5.35 ERA and 4 blown saves in 25 chances. He is also 39 years old. The health of Joel Zumaya will be a significant factor in the long-term success of the Tigers bullpen.

Cleveland has bounced back after a disappointing 2006 campaign and has a well balanced team. Grady Sizemore has a legitimate shot at being a 30-30 guy. Cleveland could potentially end up with 5 players with 30 or more home runs in Sizemore (15), Casey Blake (14), Jhonny Peralta (14), Victor Martinez(16), and Travis Hafner(14). C.C. Sabathia and Fausto Carmona have been the most effective starting pitchers in the first half, and Joe Borowski has 25 saves in 27 chances, despite a 5.35 ERA. A few concerns I have with the Indians include the fact that they are inexperienced in a playoff run and depth at starting pitching.

Whichever team finishes 2^nd in this division will probably win the AL Wildcard.

Prediction: Detroit Tigers

AL West

Los Angeles	53-34	--
Seattle	48-36	3.5
Oakland	44-43	9.0
Texas	37-50	16.0

Despite the reason hot streak by the Mariners, I think this will be a 2 team race in the end with the Angels and A's leading the way. Seattle has proven itself a fine team this year, but lack the starting pitching to make a run as we head into the 2^nd half of the season. In recent years the A's have put together some incredible runs in the 2^nd half of the season and have the best starting pitching in the division. The return of Rich Harden, if he can stay healthy, will give them 4 starting pitchers with ERAs of 3.09 or lower. However, the Angels also have very good starting pitching, one of the best closers in the AL, and a more potent offense. Not to mention the best manager in all of baseball. I look for the A's to play much better than 1 game over .500 as they have done so far, but the current 9 game lead held by the Angels will stand.

Prediction: Los Angeles Angels

*All stats are current as of the start of play on 7/8/2007