NL East
New York | 48-39 | -- |
Atlanta | 47-42 | 2.0 |
Philadelphia | 44-44 | 4.5 |
Florida | 42-47 | 7.0 |
Washington | 36-52 | 12.5 |
The division of under-achievers. Philadelphia is better than a .500 team, and the Mets have not been able to capitalize on the injury plagued Braves and the slow start by the Phillies. John Smoltz, Chipper Jones, and Bob Wickman have all seen time on the disabled list for the Braves – 3 key players aged 40, 38, and 35 respectively.
The Mets have some age in the starting pitching as well in Tom Glavine (41), and Orlando Hernandez (somewhere around 40 - who really knows?). Pedro Martinez could provide an additional quality starter that could have the impact of a major mid-season acquisition. Offensively the Mets are the best team in the division with Jose Reyes, David Wright, Carlos Delgado, and Carlos Beltran doing most of the damage.
Off to a slow start that had many baseball people writing them off for the season, the Phillies fought back to reach the All-Star break at .500 and 4.5 games behind the Mets. The Phillies offense has some pop as well with Rollins, Utley, and Howard. Top to bottom, however, I don't think they are as deep as the Mets, and lack a true closer with Tom Gordon on the DL. Philadelphia will not go down without a fight, and will give chase to the Mets the rest of the season, but they don't have enough to win the division.
Prediction: New York Mets
NL Central
Milwaukee | 49-39 | -- |
Chicago | 44-43 | 4.5 |
St. Louis | 40-45 | 7.5 |
Pittsburgh | 40-48 | 9.0 |
Houston | 39-50 | 10.5 |
Cincinnati | 36-52 | 13.0 |
This is the surprise division in baseball. Who would have thought that at the All-Star break the Brewers would be leading the division, and the Cardinals would be 5 games under .500?
It seems like Sweet Lou Piniella is starting to make an impact in Chicago and since Michael Barrett has been shipped to San Diego, Zambrano looks like a legitimate ace of the pitching staff. Derek Lee has not found his power stroke (6 HR) coming off the wrist injury, but is hitting at a .330 clip. Soriano and Ramirez are putting together nice seasons and Ryan Dempster has been an effective closer. If they can stay healthy, the Cubs have a shot at winning this division.
Milwaukee is the biggest surprise in this division. They have a balanced lineup, decent starting pitching, and their closer leads the league in saves (Cordero – 27). Most importantly, watching this team play you come away with the impression that these guys believe they can win the division. They are right where they feel they belong – in 1st place.
Despite winning the World Series last year, the Cardinals only won 83 games in the regular season. That will not be enough to get them to the playoffs this year, and having made no improvements to the team they probably will not even reach last year's total.
Prediction: Chicago Cubs
NL West
San Diego | 49-38 | -- |
Los Angeles | 49-40 | 1.0 |
Arizona | 47-43 | 3.5 |
Colorado | 44-44 | 5.5 |
San Francisco | 38-48 | 10.5 |
With 4 out of 5 teams at .500 or better, this is the most competitive division in baseball this year. Unfortunately for 3 of those 4 teams, the parity in this division will not allow them to build records that will get them to the post-season via the wildcard – which will most likely come from the NL East.
San Diego and Los Angeles are the teams to watch in this division. Chris Young is the difference maker in the pitching match-ups for these teams. The top 2 starters for each are a push (Peavy and Maddux vs. Penny and Lowe). Chris Young for the Padres is 8-3 with and ERA of 2.00 and made his first All-Star game this year. Combine this with Hall-of-Famer Trevor Hoffman coming out of the bullpen gives San Diego the edge in the pitching department. I know, Takashi Saito is having a very good year closing for the Dodger too, but I'll take the Hall-of-Famer.
The Achilles heal for the Padres is their offense. Brian Giles leads the team with a .279 average and Alex Gonzales, the incredible shortstop known more for his glove than his bat, is second at .264. The old saying is that pitching and defense wins games, but you can't win a 0-0 game. The Padres have to find a way to generate more offense and will look to do so as the trade deadline comes near. The good news for the Padres is the fact that the Dodger line-up does not necessarily strike fear into the hearts of opposing pitchers either, but I think it is enough to win this division.
Prediction: Los Angeles Dodgers
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