Yes, I'm serious. Alex Rodriguez will hit 900 home runs. He will reach 500 homers before his 32nd birthday. Think about that for a second – 500 home runs before the age of 32. Ridiculous. Now, before you go and call me an A-Rod apologist, or worse yet a Yankee fan, I want to clear the air and state plain and simple that I'm neither.
A-Rod has hit 31 home runs at the time of the All-Star break. For the sake of argument, I will assume he will hit at least 20 more in the second half of the season and finish with 51. So, I am assuming that by the end of the season in the year that A-Rod turned 32 years old, he will have 515 home runs.
For comparison, at age 32 Hank Aaron had 442 homers. Barry Bonds* had 334. Babe Ruth had 416. That means A-Rod will have 73 more home runs than his closest competitor in Hank Aaron. At this rate, if he matches Aaron's home run total for the remaining years he is easily over 800. Aaron played until he was 42 years old which is definitely within the realm of possibility for A-Rod. Medical care and injury treatment for athletes is better than in the days of Aaron, and the designated hitter could also give A-Rod a few years. So, again, I think it is safe to assume that A-Rod will be hitting home runs for the next 10 years.
The end of this season will mark the 14th season in the majors for A-Rod. Working with the total of 515 HR, that is an average of 36.8 HR per season. But that includes years 1994 and 1995, his first two seasons in the majors when he played a total of 65 games and hit just 5 HR. Discounting those two years, the average jumps to 42.9 HR per season. Continuing at that pace, he will reach 900 HR in just under 9 years, and at age 41. If he plays until the age of 42, he will need to average 38.5 HR per season to reach 900 – a total he has exceeded 8 out of the last 10 years.
But can he continue at that pace through his 30's? Aaron, Ruth, and Bonds* actually increased their home run output in their mid-30's. Aaron highest season total (47) was in 1971 at the age of 37. Ruth's best 5-year average was from ages 32-36. The best 5-year average for Bonds* came at the age 35-39. While it may be hard for a 40-something slugger to average 38 HR per season, I expect A-Rod will not have to in order to reach 900. Hit totals in his 30's will provide enough of a cushion to accommodate a decrease in production as he ages.
But what about durability? Of course that is something we cannot predict. Had it not been for injuries, Ken Griffey Jr. would currently be giving chase to the home run record along with Bonds*. But looking back at the past 11 seasons (not counting this season), A-Rod has averaged 152 games played. He also takes tremendous care of himself and has a solid training regimen. And again, as he starts to age there is always the option of the designated hitter to prolong his career.
Like him or not, what we are witnessing right now in watching A-Rod play baseball is something for the ages – something we will all be telling our grand children about someday. And without the *.
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