UFC vs Boxing, Part III

This is part III in a series detailing why I think the UFC is a better sport right now than boxing. Part I talks about the mess that is the various ranking systems and title belts in boxing. Part II talks about the better marketing efforts by the UFC.

Reason #3 – Better Pay-Per-View Events

The biggest PPV event boxing has offered so far this year is the Oscar De La Hoya vs Floyd Mayweather Jr fight. Held at the Grand Garden Arena in Las Vegas and heavily promoted by HBO with their mini-series chronicling the fighters in the weeks leading up to the fight, it was billed as the event that was going to save boxing, to put boxing back on the map and rejuvenate interest. After all, it was the current WBC junior middleweight champion and six-division champion De La Hoya against what some people believed to be the best pound-for-pound boxer in the world in Mayweather Jr. The publicity worked – the fight set the all-time record for PPV buys for a boxing match with 2.15 million households tuning in.

The result? A match in which neither fighter was ever in command of the other, with Mayweather Jr. clearly avoiding a brawl with De La Hoya by moving around and throwing a quick flurry of punches whenever De La Hoya was able to catch up to him. Mayweather Jr. was declared the winner in a loudly booed split decision that even had Mayweather Jr's own father questioning the judges.

Who actually won the fight, however, is not the issue. What is more important is whether or not the fans got what they paid for. At best, the fight was uneventful. At worst, outright boring. If only there were some other fights on the card that could also have provided some entertainment to supplement the main event. Oh, yeah, there was. But can you name who the fighters were and who won? I would bet that 95% of the PPV subscribers can't. Why? It was unimportant and worse yet, uninteresting.

Is the UFC immune from bad decisions and boring fights? Of course not. But just take a look at the fight card of a typical PPV event. A glance at the fight card for the upcoming UFC 74 to be held at Mandalay Bay, Las Vegas on August 25 shows that there are 5 fights guaranteed to be broadcast on PPV. There are 4 other fights that are held in the same evening that could also be broadcast should one of the other fights end quickly. It's a virtual guarantee that PPV viewers are going to see at least one great fight, most likely more than one. Boxing can't say that.

But are the other fighters any good or are they no-name fighters like the undercard of boxing events? You can see that for yourself. Just look at the packed arena for all of these fights, not just the main event. It will stand in stark contrast to the rows of empty seats during boxing PPV events. That will speak for itself.

Home Run Leaders – By Decade

I'm a sucker for a good trivia question – especially baseball trivia. A friend of mine posed a good question to me the other day I thought I would share.

Who are the home run leaders broken down by decade? For example, for the 1920's its Babe Ruth. Can you name the others since then? I had to think about it for a while and was unable to come up with all of them. I've had to do some research and listed below are the correct answers.

Decade	Player	Total HR
1920's	Babe Ruth	467
1930's	Jimmie Foxx	415
1940's	Ted Williams	234
1950's	Duke Snyder	326
1960's	Harmon Killebrew	393
1970's	Willie Stargell	296
1980's	Mike Schmidt	313
1990's	Mark McGwire	405

 

A few of these were particularly troublesome to me. The 1940's are tricky because so many players missed time due to World War II. I said that if he did not miss 3 seasons due to the war, I would have guessed Ted Williams. Well, despite missing those seasons he is still the leader. The 1980s were also a problem. Schmidt had a lot of homers in the 1970's too, and I thought that since he spanned both decades he would not have enough in either decade to be the leader. Killebrew completely escaped my mind for the 1960s – my guess was Hank Aaron, who hit 375. Even if I had thought of Killebrew, I probably still would have guessed Aaron.

The End of a Journey – Gwynn and Ripken

With Tony Gwynn and Cal Ripken being inducted into the Baseball Hall of Fame this Sunday, I thought I would take a quick glance at the careers of both players.

	Tony Gwynn	Cal Ripken
Seasons	20	21
Hits	3,141	3,184
HR	135	431
RBI	1,138	1,695
BA	.338	.276

 

Gwynn's lifetime batting average of .338 is good for 17^th all-time and his 3,141 hits also ranks him 17^th. He led the National League in batting 8 times (tied with Honus Wagner for most ever in the NL) and was a 15-time All-Star. Known more for his hitting, Gwynn is also a 5-time Gold Glove winner and was a fine base stealer in his early years (stealing a career high 56 bases in 1987) before knee problems began to take a toll on his speed. Gwinn played in 2 World Series, but was unable to capture a championship ring despite hitting .500 in the 1998 series against the Yankees.

Many people thought Gwynn could have been the next person to hit .400 in a season. In 1994 Gwynn was making a legitimate run at .400, but with the season shortened due to the strike it was not to be. He finished 1994 with a .394 average – the closest anyone has come to hitting .400 since Ted Williams actually reached that plateau in 1941.

Ripken was a 19-time All-Star – most ever by an American League player, and a 2-time winner of the AL MVP. His 3,184 hits is good for 13^th all-time, 431 HR ranks him 30^th and 1,695 RBI is good for 20^th. He is one of 7 players in history to reach 400 home run and 3,000 hit totals (Hank Aaron, Willie Mays, Eddie Murray, Stan Musial, Dave Winfield, and Carl Yastrzemski are the others). Ripken only reached the World Series one time but he got his ring as the Orioles defeated the Phillies.

Ripken is perhaps best known for breaking Lou Gehrig's consecutive games played record. Gehrig's mark of 2130 consecutive games played was a record many thought would never be broken, particularly by a player in a more demanding position such as shortstop. His 2131^st game played was voted by baseball fans as the most memorable moment in MLB history.

Ripken's legacy extends beyond the "Iron Horse" persona, however. At 6' 4'' he was once thought too big to play shortstop. Never before had a shortstop come along with his size and still be as agile and graceful in the field as was Ripken - Cal won 2 Gold Gloves at the position.

Both players played their entire careers for the same teams, something that is becoming increasingly rare in professional sports. Their on the field accomplished leave no doubts regarding with Hall-of-Fame status, but it should also be noted both players epitomized good character, sportsmanship, and class. They were, and continue to be great ambassadors for MLB.

Tough Week for the Commish

It's been a tough week for the commissioners of the NFL, NBA, and MLB. The FBI is investigating veteran NBA referee Tim Donaghy on allegations that he bet on basketball games during the last 2 seasons, including games in which he was an official. The NFL is dealing with one of the more popular players in the league being indicted as a result of an ongoing dog fighting investigation. And, of course, Bud Selig is stuck between a rock and a hard place with Barry Bonds* about to break Hank Aaron's home run record.

Personally, I think David Stern is in the toughest situation. There is nothing more important to a league than the integrity of the games. Fixing games is the most egregious of sins in sports. And when it comes from an official – the people we place the most trust in with regard to being fair and impartial - the fallout could be devastating. We are fortunate for the fact that it is Stern who has to deal with this problem. He has proven himself over the years as the most capable of commissioners. As has been said about him repeatedly, he is the smartest guy in the room - regardless of what room he is in. Undoubtedly this is the biggest issue he has faced during his tenure, but the NBA has weathered more than one storm on his watch and I suspect that he will come out of this one as well.

NFL commissioner Roger Goodel has shown his mettle and resolve in cleaning up the image of the NFL and the behavior of its players in the way he handled Tank Johnson, Chris Henry, and Pac Man Jones. He is further strengthening his reputation as a no-nonsense disciplinarian by ordering Vick not to report to Falcons training camp. It is a bit surprising the he has asked the Falcons not to discipline Vick until the investigation is complete (it appears the Falcons were prepared to suspend Vick for the first 4 games of the season). However, I fully expect Goodel to come down hard if Vick is found guilty of the charges against him, even if he is one of the faces of the league. In fact, I would not be surprised if Vick has taken his last snap in the NFL. This is his opportunity to strike fear into every single player in the league. If he will give Michael Vick the boot, it could happen to anybody.

Poor Bud Selig. He is in a no-win situation. If he is not in attendance when Bonds* breaks the record people will decry him for allowing hitters to accumulate specious home run totals while he turned a blind eye, then not acknowledging the inevitable results. All of this despite reports that the current commissioners were not in attendance when Aaron broke Ruth's record, nor when Rose broke Cobb's record. If he is in attendance, there will undoubtedly be those who believe Bonds* to be a phony and that he should receive no acknowledgement or accolades from the league. One of the more underlying issues here is the fact that it has become somewhat in vogue to be a Bud Selig basher. He has been under more scrutiny (perhaps rightfully so) than any other commissioner, and has been disparaged for seemingly every decision he has made despite the resurgence in baseball with regard to TV ratings and stadium attendance. It looks like Selig will be in attendance when Bonds* breaks the record, but pending the outcome of the steroids investigation it would come as no surprise if Major League Baseball continues to acknowledge Hank Aaron as the true home run champion.

A Tale of Triumph

The dream of every kid on every ball field in America is to someday play in the major leagues. It's among the most innocent of our childhood dreams, to play big-league ball like the heroes we watched on TV and heard on the radio. For a chosen few, those dreams become a reality.

Jon Lester is one of those chosen few. He got the call last year to pitch for the Boston Red Sox, making his debut on June 10th against the Texas Rangers. The 6' 2'' southpaw made the most of his opportunity, the convergence of years of hard work and good fortune culminating in a dream come true. Lester became the first rookie left-handed pitcher in Red Sox history to win his first 5 decisions, eventually compiling a 7-2 record with a 4.76 ERA in 15 starts . It seemed he had the world in the palm of his hand, he was living the dream.

Then came another call. In late August, Lester was diagnosed with anaplastic large cell lymphoma. Jon Lester had cancer. The dream was over as he prepared for the fight of his life. Lester would undergo treatment for the next few months, and by early December it was announced that the latest CT scans showed no signs of the disease. He was given a 2^nd chance.

At the start of the 2007 season, Lester found himself working his way back through the minor leagues. He started in class A Greenville before moving to AAA Pawtucket. He was 4-5 with a 3.89 ERA in 14 starts for the AAA PawSox. And then came the call again. This time it was not the doctors, but the Red Sox. He was back.

Tonight Jon Lester will start against the Cleveland Indians – his first major league start since being diagnosed with cancer. The reality of the situation may not fully sink in until he toes the rubber in the 1^st inning, but compared to his fight with cancer the Cleveland Indians will be a walk in the park.

Good luck and welcome back Jon Lester. I'll be cheering for you.

UFC vs Boxing – Part II

This is part II in a series detailing why I think the UFC is a better sport right now than boxing. Part I, which you can read here talks about the mess that is the various ranking systems and title belts in boxing, and how the UFC has a single champion per weight class.

Reason #2 – Better Marketing

What has boxing done in recent years in an attempt to fix the dwindling interest from the public? I can't think of much. One of the major issues they could attempt to address would the issues I raised in UFC vs Boxing Part I and establish unified title holders for each weight class. Perhaps even widdle down the number of weight classes as well. Or make it a requirement that the title holder has to fight the #1 challenger. Or be more apt to deduct points for too much holding or not enough action. All of these are common complaints people hear when talking about how to restore boxing to its days of glory. But without a boxing commissioner to govern the sport, these changes are unlikely to happen.

When the UFC was first started, it was marketed as a no holds barred cage fight. Basically, the only 2 rules were no eye gouging and no fish hooking. This led to mounting criticism and political pressure to ban the sport. Finding arenas to hold events became a problem as it was outlawed in many states. The UFC needed to adapt in order to survive, and it did. The rules changed to made more socially acceptable. Referees will stop the fight quicker than they had in the past. The fight formats changed from a last-man-standing tournament to fighters fighting a single fight in an event in attempt to work their way up the ranking system for a shot at the title (just like boxing).

The UFC has run a successful series on Spike TV for up and coming fighters to win a major contract in the UFC (better and more entertaining than "The Challenger"). The championship fight in season 1 pitted Forrest Griffin and Stephan Bonner – the winner getting a $100,000 contract with the UFC. These 2 guys slugged it out in one of the greatest fights I have ever witnessed. A battered Forrest Griffin was declared the winner by a small margin. What did Dana White, the president of the UFC, do? He awarded them both a contract. And why not? It would be a major draw for the UFC to have these two fight again sometime down the road, and they were both very popular with the fans. It's a win-win situation.

How about the Ken Shamrock and Tito Ortiz trilogy? Shamrock and Ortiz are very popular light-heavyweight fighters with a real dislike for one another. Ortiz man-handled the Hall-of-Fame inductee Shamrock in the first fight. Shamrock wanted another shot, and as the UFC always seems to give the fans the fights they want to see, he was granted his wish in a major pay-per-view event. Fight #2 was stop by the referee in the early minutes of round 1 with Ortiz again the victor. Many fans, myself included, thought the fight was stopped too early. How did the UFC handle this? They arranged for a third and final fight between Ortiz and Shamrock which was broadcast live on Spike TV - for free (Ortiz stopped Shamrock again early in the fight). Basically, they said since fight #2 was a disappointment, we are giving you fight #3 for free. Could you imaging boxing do that? I didn't think so.

Does America Really Care About David Beckham?

In a word, No. The cold hard truth is that soccer is not on the radar for most main stream sports fans in the United States. That's not a knock on the sport or those who play it – after all its arguably the most popular sport in the world. But the interest it garners here in America is just a fraction of the attention of the NFL, MLB, NBA, NCAA football and basketball, and others. In fact, here is just a quick list of sports that command the attention of the American sports fan more than soccer:

• Football (professional and college)
  
• Basketball (professional and college, men's and women's)
  
• Baseball
  
• Hockey
  
• Auto-racing (in particular NASCAR, and yes I'm conceding that it's a real sport just to support my argument here. That may be a topic for another day).
  
• Tennis (men's and women's)
  
• Golf
  
• Boxing and MMA
  
• American Gladiators
  

OK, maybe not so much with American Gladiators, but you get the point.

Besides, and I'm speaking as a soccer neophyte here, from what I understand David Beckham is not even considered the best player in Europe or England. If somebody is going to draw attention to soccer, it is going to have to be somebody that can completely and totally dominate the game. Somebody who can revolutionize the way the game is played. David Beckham is not that person. If Beckham is not going to show us anything we have not seen before, why would his involvement change anything? It won't.

Never mind Barry*. A-Rod Will Hit 900

Yes, I'm serious. Alex Rodriguez will hit 900 home runs. He will reach 500 homers before his 32^nd birthday. Think about that for a second – 500 home runs before the age of 32. Ridiculous. Now, before you go and call me an A-Rod apologist, or worse yet a Yankee fan, I want to clear the air and state plain and simple that I'm neither.

A-Rod has hit 31 home runs at the time of the All-Star break. For the sake of argument, I will assume he will hit at least 20 more in the second half of the season and finish with 51. So, I am assuming that by the end of the season in the year that A-Rod turned 32 years old, he will have 515 home runs.

For comparison, at age 32 Hank Aaron had 442 homers. Barry Bonds* had 334. Babe Ruth had 416. That means A-Rod will have 73 more home runs than his closest competitor in Hank Aaron. At this rate, if he matches Aaron's home run total for the remaining years he is easily over 800. Aaron played until he was 42 years old which is definitely within the realm of possibility for A-Rod. Medical care and injury treatment for athletes is better than in the days of Aaron, and the designated hitter could also give A-Rod a few years. So, again, I think it is safe to assume that A-Rod will be hitting home runs for the next 10 years.

The end of this season will mark the 14^th season in the majors for A-Rod. Working with the total of 515 HR, that is an average of 36.8 HR per season. But that includes years 1994 and 1995, his first two seasons in the majors when he played a total of 65 games and hit just 5 HR. Discounting those two years, the average jumps to 42.9 HR per season. Continuing at that pace, he will reach 900 HR in just under 9 years, and at age 41. If he plays until the age of 42, he will need to average 38.5 HR per season to reach 900 – a total he has exceeded 8 out of the last 10 years.

But can he continue at that pace through his 30's? Aaron, Ruth, and Bonds* actually increased their home run output in their mid-30's. Aaron highest season total (47) was in 1971 at the age of 37. Ruth's best 5-year average was from ages 32-36. The best 5-year average for Bonds* came at the age 35-39. While it may be hard for a 40-something slugger to average 38 HR per season, I expect A-Rod will not have to in order to reach 900. Hit totals in his 30's will provide enough of a cushion to accommodate a decrease in production as he ages.

But what about durability? Of course that is something we cannot predict. Had it not been for injuries, Ken Griffey Jr. would currently be giving chase to the home run record along with Bonds*. But looking back at the past 11 seasons (not counting this season), A-Rod has averaged 152 games played. He also takes tremendous care of himself and has a solid training regimen. And again, as he starts to age there is always the option of the designated hitter to prolong his career.

Like him or not, what we are witnessing right now in watching A-Rod play baseball is something for the ages – something we will all be telling our grand children about someday. And without the *.

What is the NFL Supplemental Draft

On July 12^th, the NFL held its yearly supplemental draft. I've spoken to a few people who are not sure what the supplemental draft is, what it's for, and how it works.

In short, the supplemental draft is held every year after the official NFL draft and before the season starts. The draft is for college players who did not enter the regular draft because they intended to continue to play college football but are now ineligible, usually because of disciplinary action or academics. The supplemental draft is a much smaller event than the regular draft (only 10 players in the 2007 supplemental draft), and rarely results in the acquisition of big impact players.

The supplemental draft process is different than the regular draft. Teams are divided into three groups based on their previous season's performance:

• Teams with 6 or fewer wins.
  
• Teams with more than 6 wins that did not make the playoffs.
  
• The remaining 12 playoff teams.
  

Rather than draft the players in a pre-defined order, the teams submit a bid to the commissioner detailing what player they want and what round they want to select him in. If no other team selects that player in a higher round, the team is awarded the player at the cost of a draft pick in the corresponding round of the following season's regular draft. For example, if the Redskins select a player in the 3^rd round of the 2007 supplemental draft, it will cost them a 3^rd round draft pick in the 2008 regular draft.

From the supplemental drafts inception in 1977 through 2006, 35 players have been selected. Some of the bigger names include Bernie Kosar, Brian Bosworth, Chris Carter, Steve Walsh, Timm Rosenbach, and Mike Wahle. Of the 10 players eligible in the 2007 supplemental draft, Paul Oliver (CB - Georgia) was selected in the 4^th round by the Chargers, and Jared Gaither (OT – Maryland) selected in the 5^th round by the Ravens.

UFC vs Boxing - Part I

This is part I in a series of why the Ultimate Fighting Championship is better than boxing in it's current state. In case you've had your head buried in the sand for past few years, the Ultimate Fighting Championship is a mixed martial arts fighting sport that pits the best martial arts fighters in the world against one another. The UFC started in 1993, and has established itself as the premier forum for martial arts fighters in the United States and the world. You can learn more about the Ultimate Fighting Championship here.

I've been a fan of the UFC since UFC 1, and I've been a boxing fan my entire life. I still am a boxing fan. But the fact of the matter is that boxing has seen its glory days go past, and the UFC is just hitting its stride. There are a number of reasons why I believe this is happening, which I will detail in a series of posts. So, without further ado….

Reason #1 – Unified Title Holder

Quick, name all the title belts in boxing and who currently holds them in the heavyweight division. I thought so. Frankly, it's a mess – IBF, WBA, WBC, and WBO. Not only does each organization have their own champions, but their own rankings as well. Let's look at the current rankings listed on Fightnews.com for heavyweight Nicolay Valuev, the former WBA heavyweight champion and the first Russian professional heavyweight champ. Valuev is currently the #1 contender for the WBA title held by Ruslan Chagaev. However, in each of the WBC and IBF Valuev is ranked #6. (Incidentally, there are no #1 or #2 contenders in the IBF ranking as of July 10, 2007. Am I the only one that thinks that's kind of strange?). As for the ranking of Valuev in the WBO? He's not. That's right, the WBA has him as the #1 contender, and the WBO does not even currently have him ranked. This is worse than the college football BCS.

One of the biggest tragedies this fosters is a lack of the most compelling fights. Why would a current champion, making a lot of money defending his title, fight another champion when he knows he is not the better fighter? Yeah, money talks, and sometimes these big showdowns happen, but all too often they don't and that's a shame. There is a major fight card scheduled for October 13^th to have some of the heavyweight champions fight each other in an attempt to create a unified heavyweight champion, and I'm all for that. It's overdue. But it should not be necessary. It just smacks of greed and self-serving promoters. And, as seems to always be the case whenever an effort such as this is in the works, Wladimir Klitschko had to decline due to a hand injury.

The UFC has one champion per weight class. In order to be the champ, you have to beat the champ, mano-a-mano. The UFC is also more successful in getting the champions into the octagon with the top contenders. How many times have we seen in boxing when a champ and the #1 contender can't work out a contract, or some other nonsense, to make their fight a reality? Too many. While anytime there are big-time fighters with big-time egos trying to work out details of a contract or anything else for that matter, there is the possibility that it won't happen. Fortunately for MMA fans, this happens a lot less in the UFC.

National League Mid-Season Review

NL East

New York	48-39	--
Atlanta	47-42	2.0
Philadelphia	44-44	4.5
Florida	42-47	7.0
Washington	36-52	12.5

The division of under-achievers. Philadelphia is better than a .500 team, and the Mets have not been able to capitalize on the injury plagued Braves and the slow start by the Phillies. John Smoltz, Chipper Jones, and Bob Wickman have all seen time on the disabled list for the Braves – 3 key players aged 40, 38, and 35 respectively.

The Mets have some age in the starting pitching as well in Tom Glavine (41), and Orlando Hernandez (somewhere around 40 - who really knows?). Pedro Martinez could provide an additional quality starter that could have the impact of a major mid-season acquisition. Offensively the Mets are the best team in the division with Jose Reyes, David Wright, Carlos Delgado, and Carlos Beltran doing most of the damage.

Off to a slow start that had many baseball people writing them off for the season, the Phillies fought back to reach the All-Star break at .500 and 4.5 games behind the Mets. The Phillies offense has some pop as well with Rollins, Utley, and Howard. Top to bottom, however, I don't think they are as deep as the Mets, and lack a true closer with Tom Gordon on the DL. Philadelphia will not go down without a fight, and will give chase to the Mets the rest of the season, but they don't have enough to win the division.

Prediction: New York Mets

NL Central

Milwaukee	49-39	--
Chicago	44-43	4.5
St. Louis	40-45	7.5
Pittsburgh	40-48	9.0
Houston	39-50	10.5
Cincinnati	36-52	13.0

This is the surprise division in baseball. Who would have thought that at the All-Star break the Brewers would be leading the division, and the Cardinals would be 5 games under .500?

It seems like Sweet Lou Piniella is starting to make an impact in Chicago and since Michael Barrett has been shipped to San Diego, Zambrano looks like a legitimate ace of the pitching staff. Derek Lee has not found his power stroke (6 HR) coming off the wrist injury, but is hitting at a .330 clip. Soriano and Ramirez are putting together nice seasons and Ryan Dempster has been an effective closer. If they can stay healthy, the Cubs have a shot at winning this division.

Milwaukee is the biggest surprise in this division. They have a balanced lineup, decent starting pitching, and their closer leads the league in saves (Cordero – 27). Most importantly, watching this team play you come away with the impression that these guys believe they can win the division. They are right where they feel they belong – in 1st place.

Despite winning the World Series last year, the Cardinals only won 83 games in the regular season. That will not be enough to get them to the playoffs this year, and having made no improvements to the team they probably will not even reach last year's total.

Prediction: Chicago Cubs

NL West

San Diego	49-38	--
Los Angeles	49-40	1.0
Arizona	47-43	3.5
Colorado	44-44	5.5
San Francisco	38-48	10.5

With 4 out of 5 teams at .500 or better, this is the most competitive division in baseball this year. Unfortunately for 3 of those 4 teams, the parity in this division will not allow them to build records that will get them to the post-season via the wildcard – which will most likely come from the NL East.

San Diego and Los Angeles are the teams to watch in this division. Chris Young is the difference maker in the pitching match-ups for these teams. The top 2 starters for each are a push (Peavy and Maddux vs. Penny and Lowe). Chris Young for the Padres is 8-3 with and ERA of 2.00 and made his first All-Star game this year. Combine this with Hall-of-Famer Trevor Hoffman coming out of the bullpen gives San Diego the edge in the pitching department. I know, Takashi Saito is having a very good year closing for the Dodger too, but I'll take the Hall-of-Famer.

The Achilles heal for the Padres is their offense. Brian Giles leads the team with a .279 average and Alex Gonzales, the incredible shortstop known more for his glove than his bat, is second at .264. The old saying is that pitching and defense wins games, but you can't win a 0-0 game. The Padres have to find a way to generate more offense and will look to do so as the trade deadline comes near. The good news for the Padres is the fact that the Dodger line-up does not necessarily strike fear into the hearts of opposing pitchers either, but I think it is enough to win this division.

Prediction: Los Angeles Dodgers

American League Mid-Season Review

AL East

Boston	53-33	--
Toronto	42-44	11.0
New York	41-43	11.0
Baltimore	38-48	15.0
Tampa Bay	34-52	19.0

The Red Sox have a commanding lead at the mid-point of the season. Playing .500 baseball the rest of the way would still put them at 91 wins, while somewhere in the neighborhood of 98-100 wins is probably the more likely scenario. Given the depth and success of their starting pitching and a very solid bullpen, a prolonged losing streak seems unlikely. And if/when Manny and Big Papi find their power strokes the offense will be among the most formidable in all of baseball.

Toronto has too many injuries to seriously make a run at the Sox, and New York would have to win 54 out of the last 78 games (a nearly .700 winning percentage) to reach 95 wins. With a lack of consistant starting pitching, despite the arrival of Roger Clemens, and bullpen issues, this seems unlikely despite tremendous seasons being put together by A-Rod and Derek Jeter.

Prediction: Boston Red Sox

AL Central

Detroit	51-34	--
Cleveland	52-35	--
Minnesota	45-42	7.0
Chicago	38-47	13.0
Kansas City	37-50	15.0

The race between the Tigers and Indians could turn out to be the most exciting in baseball. The Tigers lead the Majors in runs scored, on pace to score about 960 runs for the season. They have two young studs in the starting rotation in Justin Verlander (10-3 3.14 ERA) and Jeremy Bonderman (9-1 3.48 ERA). Kenny Rogers is also back into the fold winning his first 3 starts with a 1.04 ERA. Offensively Magglio Ordonez is having a fantastic season (.367 AVG, 13 HR, 70 RBI, .604 SLG) and Gary Sheffield continues to hit (.297 AVG, 20HR, 56 RBI, .541 SLG). With Palanco also hitting .335 and Guillen hitting .325 it is easy to see why they lead the league in runs scored. Two concerns that stand out to me are Curtis Granderson and Todd Jones. Granderson is a fine ballplayer, a solid fielder (.995 FPCT), and a decent hitter (.284 AVG). However, he needs to cut down on the strikeouts having struck out 82 times already this season against only 27 BB. Last year he struck out 174 times. Todd Jones has a 1-4 record with a 5.35 ERA and 4 blown saves in 25 chances. He is also 39 years old. The health of Joel Zumaya will be a significant factor in the long-term success of the Tigers bullpen.

Cleveland has bounced back after a disappointing 2006 campaign and has a well balanced team. Grady Sizemore has a legitimate shot at being a 30-30 guy. Cleveland could potentially end up with 5 players with 30 or more home runs in Sizemore (15), Casey Blake (14), Jhonny Peralta (14), Victor Martinez(16), and Travis Hafner(14). C.C. Sabathia and Fausto Carmona have been the most effective starting pitchers in the first half, and Joe Borowski has 25 saves in 27 chances, despite a 5.35 ERA. A few concerns I have with the Indians include the fact that they are inexperienced in a playoff run and depth at starting pitching.

Whichever team finishes 2^nd in this division will probably win the AL Wildcard.

Prediction: Detroit Tigers

AL West

Los Angeles	53-34	--
Seattle	48-36	3.5
Oakland	44-43	9.0
Texas	37-50	16.0

Despite the reason hot streak by the Mariners, I think this will be a 2 team race in the end with the Angels and A's leading the way. Seattle has proven itself a fine team this year, but lack the starting pitching to make a run as we head into the 2^nd half of the season. In recent years the A's have put together some incredible runs in the 2^nd half of the season and have the best starting pitching in the division. The return of Rich Harden, if he can stay healthy, will give them 4 starting pitchers with ERAs of 3.09 or lower. However, the Angels also have very good starting pitching, one of the best closers in the AL, and a more potent offense. Not to mention the best manager in all of baseball. I look for the A's to play much better than 1 game over .500 as they have done so far, but the current 9 game lead held by the Angels will stand.

Prediction: Los Angeles Angels

*All stats are current as of the start of play on 7/8/2007